By Joshua Elash, Founding Director, MT Finance
After a long run-up, I expect Wednesday’s Budget to be steady, measured and welcome news for business.
On Wednesday 28 October, Chancellor John Healey stands up to deliver his first Budget, and the first fiscal event of Andy Burnham’s premiership. Even though pre-Budget speculation has been considerable, my expectation, as someone who works with UK businesses and property professionals every day, is a calm Budget that prioritises stability and growth.
The backdrop is encouraging
The economic picture arriving at the Chancellor’s door is better than many predicted. The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook raised its 2026 growth forecast for the UK to 1.3%, up from 1.0% in July. That makes the UK, jointly with Germany, the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year. The IMF also expects the UK to have the lowest annual borrowing in the G7 by 2031.
The tone from Downing Street has been constructive too. The Prime Minister has hosted senior business leaders and pitched the government as a partner for growth, and the Chancellor has described growth as the sustainable route to stronger public finances. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to the fiscal rules. Taken together, these signals point towards a Budget designed to build confidence rather than disturb it.
On tax: stability over surprise
Businesses have spent the past eighteen months planning around the 2025 increase in employer National Insurance. I do not expect it to be reversed on Wednesday, but I also do not expect it to be increased. The government has restated its manifesto commitments on income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance, and the Chancellor has committed to keeping corporation tax at no more than 25%. With those anchors in place, any revenue-raising is more likely to be targeted than broad-based.
For most businesses, a predictable tax landscape matters more than any single rate. Firms that can plan with confidence invest, hire and borrow with confidence.
On property: keeping the market moving
The Prime Minister has said stamp duty will not change at this Budget, and the Treasury collected £16.6 billion from it in the last financial year, so I am not expecting a headline reform on Wednesday. The case for continued review nonetheless remains strong. Thresholds have not kept pace with house prices, and the cost of moving can deter downsizers, growing families and first-time buyers alike. A system that encourages people to move keeps chains intact, supports the wider economy and keeps the market active.
The government’s stated ambition on home ownership, including the proposed “Your First Home” scheme, suggests a positive direction. I would welcome the Chancellor using the Budget to signal that stamp duty will remain under review as part of a wider plan for housing.
What certainty unlocks
A calm Budget is a powerful thing. When the rules of the game are clear, borrowers can commit to projects, brokers can advise with confidence, and lenders can back opportunities swiftly. Specialist finance thrives when the market is moving, and the conditions for that are well within reach.
The IMF has also noted that energy prices and interest rates will shape the outlook for 2027, which is one more reason why a predictable, pro-growth Budget matters now.
My expectation
As far as budgets go, I expect this one to be calm and largely uneventful. The Chancellor has made fiscal discipline his priority, the IMF has upgraded the UK’s growth outlook and praised its progress on deficit reduction, and both he and the Prime Minister have positioned the government as a partner for growth. I therefore expect no broad-based new burdens on business, continued attention on housing and a clear message that the UK is open for investment. If that is what the Chancellor delivers on Wednesday, I believe it will give the market the certainty it has been waiting for, and a strong foundation for 2027.
